Support or oppose Trump declaring “emergency” to build wall

Discussion in 'Politics and Current Events' started by JG, Jan 7, 2019.

  1. Horns1960

    Horns1960 Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    So what would your drug restrictions be? Heroin? Meth? Pot is not driving the cartels. Legalizing it nationwide would have a neglible impact. I do not oppose legalizing pot.
     
  2. cctxfan

    cctxfan Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    I don't have a concrete answer to that. I would start off with pot and then go from there. I'm not naive enough to think that my solution could potentially backfire nor would I lift a blanket ban on on all illicit drugs all at the same time. It would be a controlled experiment, to a degree.
     
  3. Horns1960

    Horns1960 Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    I assumed you support 100% legalization. I see no way to take that position and support any restriction on guns. If you want to stop the black market, let’s go total Wild West. No restrictions on drugs and guns sold domestically.

    In return, we can cage illegal immigrant children, mail them and their purveyors off to some random Central American ****hole, and domestically ICE can crack heads. I’d go there.
     
  4. calvin farquhar

    calvin farquhar Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Hell yeah that'll solve the problem.


    Said no one with more than half a brain.
     
  5. Horns1960

    Horns1960 Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    It will solve no problems. Just like legalizing pot or criminalizing bump fire gunstocks.

    We are at the point of idiocy.
     
    calvin farquhar likes this.
  6. Denali100

    Denali100 Member Who Talks

    There have been more undocumented aliens going South than north over the last 11 years. https://www.statista.com/statistics/646261/unauthorized-immigrant-population-in-the-us/

    Likely as a result, there are simply not enough available workers in the US to fill all of the low skilled jobs. Trump certainly agrees that there are not sufficient legal residents to fill 131 positions at his Mira Lago country club. In 2018 and it sounds like for many years prior, he has filed for at at least that many H-2B visas and on the application, his company has to state as follows: there are not enough U.S. workers who are able, willing, qualified, and available and that the foreign workers will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of similarly employed U.S. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...7/06/mar-lago-foreign-worker-visas/764053002/

    And of course at his Jersey golf course, instead of wasting time with H-2B visas, they just teach undocumented workers how to forge papers so that they can have the pleasure of making Trump's bed. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/03/us/trump-golf-club-illegal-immigrant-employee.html

    So if more are heading South than heading North over the last 11 years and if there are not enough waiters or cooks in Florida and not enough maids in Jersey, then what is the emergency?????

    And oh by the way, looks like we will need to build a northern wall too. For fewer pesos than coyote's demand, a Mexican can simply fly to Canada (no visa required) and come across the Canadian/US border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/24/canada-vermont-illegal-border-crossings-immigration

    Moreover, as we all know, Melania is proof that there are jobs in the US that Americans don't want:)
     
  7. cctxfan

    cctxfan Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

  8. cctxfan

    cctxfan Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

  9. JG

    JG Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Sorry.
     
  10. cctxfan

    cctxfan Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

  11. Duke Silver

    Duke Silver Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Ask him which restrictions Scalia "voted" for.
     
    calvin farquhar likes this.
  12. JG

    JG Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Trump’s approval sliding some now. Even in the right-biased Rasmussen it’s -12.

    Probly not nearly enough to force him to concede. All he wants is his base 40%.

    If that 40% starts to erode, that’s when things might change. The Pubs in the senate are in a tough spot...can’t cross him, but as time goes by the public may start getting pissed at them too.
     
  13. calvin farquhar

    calvin farquhar Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

  14. SAhornfan

    SAhornfan Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Can we just cut out the middleman and get cctx's wife a membership?
     
    horn78 and Duke Silver like this.
  15. Shane3

    Shane3 Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    futures2015 likes this.
  16. 40A

    40A Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    futures2015 likes this.
  17. acreativeusername

    acreativeusername Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Already posted an article showing this isn’t true. Trump had both a DACA compromise and the wall funding but then said the deal was “too liberal.” Democrats did not “say no”
     
  18. 40A

    40A Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

  19. acreativeusername

    acreativeusername Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

  20. UTGrad91

    UTGrad91 Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Trump's approval is up to 50% among Hispanics. Guess they're not in favor of illegal immigration either.

    https://insider.foxnews.com/2019/01...ns-approval-latino-voters-government-shutdown
     
  21. calvin farquhar

    calvin farquhar Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    UTGrad91 likes this.
  22. Shane3

    Shane3 Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

  23. calvin farquhar

    calvin farquhar Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Dreamers for wall funds. Balls in your court Pelosi.
     
  24. JG

    JG Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

  25. Duke Silver

    Duke Silver Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Shut the **** up.
     
  26. JG

    JG Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Trump offering DACA for three years and a few other things.

    Dems already say no.

    So we keep going.
     
  27. calvin farquhar

    calvin farquhar Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    No shock here.
     
  28. UTGrad91

    UTGrad91 Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Any poll that you don't agree with must be wrong. Got it.
     
  29. JG

    JG Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    On what planet do Hispanics approve of Trump by a significantly larger margin than white?

    It makes no sense.
     
  30. UTGrad91

    UTGrad91 Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    If you want to challenge the poll then point out errors in the poll's methodology or cite another poll taken in the last few days that shows Hispanic approval for Trump at a lower level.
     
  31. Shane3

    Shane3 Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    We have a significant legal Hispanic population here in CA that resents the flood of illegals. Of course that doesn’t fit into your world view.
     
  32. JG

    JG Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    I don’t need to challenge the methodology to know its wrong.

    I don’t have to challenge the methodologies of the 2016 polls in Wisconsin either. They were wrong.

    Any poll that has Hispanics approving +4 and whites -10 is bogus.

    Would you believe a poll that said Beto would beat Trump by 12 in Texas? No...wrong on its face. No further investigation needed.
     
  33. UTGrad91

    UTGrad91 Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    In other words you've got nothing as usual.
     
  34. JG

    JG Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Do the numbers make sense 91?

    I’ll answer it for you. No. There is no way a poll showing Hispanics with 10 points higher approval than whites. It doesn’t make sense.

    I would believe a poll with 50 percent approval of Hispanics if white approval was 60. But not at 40.
     
  35. 40A

    40A Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    All the polling had Hillary as a gigantic winner in 2016.

    You were saying the polling was right, weren't you?
     
    Duke Silver likes this.
  36. JG

    JG Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    The national polling was correct since it measures popular vote.

    State level pollong in the Midwest was off, especially in Wisconsin.
     
  37. 40A

    40A Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    Whatever you say, chief.
     
  38. Toadvine

    Toadvine Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    (1) Hispanic is too broad a definition to be meaningful for much measurement. Hispanic in South Florida vs Hispanic in the Valley, Hispanic in Collin County vs Hispanic in Harris County, Hispanic in NYC vs Hispanic anywhere else.

    (2) Polling isn't necessarily the same as polling of likely voters; you see a relatively small percentage of eligible voters actually voting, and there are a lot of people who are citizens who are not eligible to vote (numbers I have seen are approx 6MM who are convicted felons).

    (3) As a consequence of (1) & (2), broad issue polling doesn't tell me much unless it comes with a two page detailed explanation of what was asked, where it was asked and how the sampling was determined to be representative.
     
    Denali100 likes this.
  39. Denali100

    Denali100 Member Who Talks

    I love it when we are at a time when Trump supporters are highlighting polls showing his favorable/unfavorable rating is underwater by 14%. The 538 poll of polls have his approval/disapproval disparity trending down (15.2 % today).

    Your poll also suggests there has been a 19 point increase in Hispanic support from December (from 31% to 50%). which equals over a 60% increase in support in 1-2 months (e.g. if you increase your earnings from $31 to $50, you have increased your income by over 60% and nominally of course by $19.) Trump campaigned vigorously for his wall, scary caravans, etc. all through election day in November so certainly his support of the wall, fear of the caravans, etc. would have been fully baked into December numbers. Moreover, the 538 poll of polls show a relatively dramatic greater disapproval differential from December to the current (50% increase from a 10% spread to a 15% spread.)

    So if the poll you cite is to be believed, then during a period of time when his overall approval/disapproval disparity has become 50% more negative, his Hispanic disparity percentage has become over 60% more positive. And what changed during such time (the stock market dipped, more allegations have come out against Trump, and the government has shut down.) Not sure how we can arrange a bet, but I would bet the mortgage that your cited the poll is wildly inaccurate as to the claim related to Hispanic approval of Trump.

    As to the methodology, without spending any time on it, two items jump out. First and most important, only 158 Hispanics were polled. With not much research, I think you will find that a survey of 158 people will yield a very high margin of error. Second, the poll was English only so excluded Hispanics that either don't understand English well enough to take the poll or chose not to participate in an English only poll. In both cases, it is likely support for Trump would be lower than the Hispanics who participated in the poll and with so few people polled, it could have a significant effect.

    My strong guess is that the poll below taken after Trump campaigned hard for border security which shows about a 30% approval vs a 68% disapproval based upon over 2,000 polled is much more accurate. But I hope Trump and his party is sufficiently dumb to believe that shutting down the government for his wall is good politics in the Hispanic community. The wave of 9% more Dem votes than Repub votes in the 2018 midterms will at least be maintained and likely grown. It will likely work as well as Prop 189 in CA which most credit for the blue wave in CA over the last 30 years. Amazingly, now in 2018, the formerly very very red California Orange and SD Counties, are now very blue and Hispanics are a huge reason. Repubs are now number 3 in registration behind Dems and Decline to States.

    http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/3215/4169/1580/Latino_Xtab_States.pdf
     
  40. UTGrad91

    UTGrad91 Member Who Talks (A Lot!)

    As I pointed out to JG, if you want to dispute the poll, you'll need to show a contemporary poll which shows Trump's current approval among Hispanics to be lower, not what it was months ago.

    Also, Trump's current overall approval is irrelevant as to whether or not he gets reelected. Reagan's approval rating in January 1983 was only 35% and he went on to win 49 states the next year. Meanwhile George Bush had an approval rating of close to 90% in January 1991 thanks to Desert Storm only to lose in November 1992 to Clinton.
     

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